Adaptive Planning Standing the Test of Time: The Thames Estuary

The UK Environment Agency’s Thames Estuary 2100 flood risk management plan (TE2100) is an adaptive flood risk management plan developed to protect London and the lower Thames River from flood risk through to the end of the 21st century.

Published in November 2012 following a six year programme of studies, TE2100 was the first major UK flood risk management plan to place adaptability as a fundamental requirement, in recognition of the uncertainty of pace and scale of changes that might occur with climate change. 5 years on, TE2100 is still viewed internationally as an exemplar approach to adaptive flood risk management on a significant scale.

What were the key elements that led to the success of this project which have stood the test of time in this vitally important and rapidly changing area? David Ramsbottom was the Environment Agency’s technical lead for the development of TE2100 and so will provide unparalleled insight into the delivery of TE2100 and the attributes that have resulted in it being identified as an exemplar approach to adaptive flood risk management planning. He will provide an overview of the method and how it was applied in TE2100.

Importantly, with 5 years hindsight and further development in adaptive planning, and with TE2100 having moved into an implementation phase, David will reflect on things which would be considered differently if the project was starting now.

Many of the challenges facing major urban centres in New Zealand share similarities with those addressed in TE2100; including sea level rise and varying flood sources, large populations at risk, uncertainty, ageing infrastructure and complex planning and economic environments.

This paper will use the TE2100 example to explore the fundamentals of adaptive planning and identify similarities and lessons that