High Cost in Cleaning up Waikato's Waterways

The Cambridge-based environmentalist is a member of a group dedicated to cleaning up Lake Karapiro. He's disappointed the impact on Waikato's tourism industry was not factored into any of the costings.

"A model that leaves out half of the season Cambridge exists isn't a very good model."

If farming had done $7.7 billion in damage, then farming should pay for it. Dairy intensification and pine-to-pasture conversions are largely to blame for the high cost, he says.

The council knows its policies are driving this pollution and Robson questions who would be held accountable now that a cost has been established for its cleanup.

He called on the CSG to release the models so they can be peer reviewed.

"It's just plain wrong. It's just a heap of s----and they are too scared to release it because they know it will be pulled apart and they know the costs aren't what they are saying."

However, CSG chairman Bill Wasley says the models have been peer reviewed overseas and more information around the models would be released when the CSG holds public meetings in the coming months.

He says the first scenario gave effect to Vision and Strategy document, shows what would need to be achieved to reach the goals around that document and is the overarching goal for achieving water quality.

He says it took a long time for the water quality to get to its current state and the CSG still needs to work though timeframes in improving Waikato waterways. That could take longer than the 25-year costings outlined in the modelling.

"A plan change generally has a life of 10 years and it's likely in terms of improving water quality that it's a very long journey that could involve many decades."

They are models only and there is a long way to go before any policy is decided. They are scenarios for improvement and highlight how it could be done at the least possible cost. The models also did not take into account innovation occurring within the sector and ways that farmers can adapt to change.

Waikato Federated Farmers president Chris Lewis calls the models an important first step in deciding nutrient limits.

"We don't want this to look like agriculture is all of the problem. Clearly we accept we are part of the problem and solution."

The CSG's challenge is to find the sweet spot of improving quality while maintaining the regional economy. This modelling shows the issues, not the solutions.

There will be consultation meetings on the models and Lewis encourages farmers to attend.

"Until you get to the meetings and understand what it means for you - there's no point in worrying about something you don't understand."

He encourages farmers to continue to work hard to improve water quality and reduce their environmental footprint.

The first scenario would achieve very good water quality everywhere, but Lewis said it would destroy the region's economy.

"Potentially this would mean a massive amount of job losses and a depopulation of the region. I just don't see how the Waikato economy can sustain that."

All of the community is in this issue together and all have a part to play. While agriculture has a large part to play in improving water quality, other industries and towns do as well and Lewis points to the effects hydrodams have on water quality and the delay it causes on flushing.

"The dams play a huge part. If they weren't there, it wouldn't look as bad."

When asked if it spells the end for further land use change to dairying, Lewis chose his words carefully:

"Any activity will have to meet the vision and strategy of this document, whether it's industrial farming or the towns. We all have a part to play."

Lewis says it is too early to say either way what it means for land use change.

The federation's provincial vice president, Andrew McGiven , says any new conversions would be given greater scrutiny under the models.

"I believe it will be a lot harder. That's my personal opinion."

Based on these models, the writing is on the wall for any more dairy conversions, Green Party water spokeswoman Catherine Delahunty says.

"And I think even Landcorp and the Government recognise that the conversions are creating problems that are unaffordable."

She also questions whether the added value of changing how New Zealand farms had been factored into the models.

The scenarios were modelled around a cost to agriculture rather than a benefit to the region in cleaning up water.

"We need to look at the fact that there is a huge benefit in cleaning up waterways, in changing agricultural practices and stopping the dairy conversions in the Upper Waikato."

This, in turn, would reduce the cleanup costs.

Landcorp, which is involved in large scale forestry to dairy conversions near Taupo, refused to comment on the modelling.

The four water quality scenarios unveiled by the Waikato Regional Council's Collaborative Stakeholder Group are:

1. Achieving water quality for swimming, taking food and healthy biodiversity - equates to restoring and protecting the water quality of the Waikato and Waipa rivers, as required by the Vision and Strategy (swimmable and fishable), with improvement everywhere, even if already meeting minimum acceptable states. Cost: $7.78 billion.

2. No further degradation and improving to at least minimum acceptable states for all attributes - equates to meeting the National Policy Statement for Freshwater Management 2014 requirements and a minimum amount of restoring and protecting the Waikato and Waipa rivers, as required by the Vision and Strategy (swimmable and fishable). Cost: $3.87 billion.

3. Some general improvement in water quality for swimming, taking food and healthy biodiversity - but may not reach minimum acceptable states everywhere. Cost: $3.88 billion.

4. No further degradation - in spite of projected extra nitrogen loads from historical land use that is still stored in groundwater and has yet to reach the river. Cost: $1.21 billion.

- Stuff

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